Photo via ArizonaPBS
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While the Democratic Party put its faith in President Joe Biden as the incumbent candidate, he is quickly losing support from key demographics within the voter base that elected him in 2020. Even reliable groups for the Democrats are beginning to withdraw their support for Biden, creating enough dissent to potentially cost him the election.
On a large scale, Biden’s approval ratings have continuously decreased after a short growth period following his inauguration. Lessening support among voters has been consistent for registered Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, and nearly two-thirds of Americans disapprove of his overall job as president, according to recent polling from Pew Research. If the ratings continue to follow the downward trend, NBC polls suggest that former President Donald Trump could win the election.
A multitude of factors are contributing to this decline in support, with voters displeased over Biden’s handling of many key issues. These primarily include his support for Israel, inability to fulfill campaign promises, age, and voters’ perception of the U.S. economy. Already a controversial candidate, the loss of support from demographics that were essential to his victory in 2020 poses a severe threat to the future of his campaign.
Research from Maya King, a political reporter at the New York Times, suggests that Biden has lost support among Black voters, typically the most loyal base for the Democratic Party. Democratic candidates can typically rely on winning a majority of Black votes, a supportive stronghold that allows candidates to focus their campaigning elsewhere without fear of losing this base. During Biden’s presidency, though, political analysts at the Economist have noted that Democrats have focused more of their campaign efforts on Black voters due to declining support for him as a candidate.
Many Black Americans believe that, while they are always encouraged to vote for Democratic candidates, these candidates aren’t effectively meeting their needs. In an interview with Astead Herndon, a reporter of U.S. elections at the New York Times, several Black voters voiced their frustration with the expectation that they will remain a loyal base for Democrats without these elected officials doing anything to support them. Many of those interviewed expressed that President Biden’s promises to support student loan forgiveness and combat racism seemed empty, and they felt that Biden’s presidency hadn’t improved their quality of life.
While the older Black voters who were interviewed identified historical conceptions of the parties as influences over their opinions, they believed that the younger generation views the parties differently based on their negative experiences. For example, many older individuals understood Democrats to be supporters of the Civil Rights Movement and a driving force behind the changing political climate that saw America elect its first Black president in 2008. By contrast, younger voters may associate the Democratic Party with economic challenges that they didn’t notice during Trump’s presidency, the idea of empty promises to help them pay student loans or access other forms of welfare, or the elderly presidential candidate that many of them consider too old to run for reelection. While most of the voters interviewed did not express excitement about voting for former President Trump, they often viewed him as a slightly better option to fulfill their expectations.
Maya King’s aforementioned research further indicates that many Black Americans have developed feelings of “malaise” towards President Biden. King’s study suggests that support for Trump has increased since the 2020 election, with many feeling disappointed by Biden’s presidency. King’s findings support that the frustrations addressed within Herndon’s interviews are commonly held among Black voters, many of whom are continuing to break the usual demographic pattern of loyalty to Democratic candidates.
King’s findings also suggest that local churches and religious groups have influenced a significant sector of the Black vote in the Southern states. While taking different factors into account, dissent for Biden has grown among Black religious leaders and groups, primarily due to Biden’s handling of the war between Israel and Hamas. King reports that many of these people feel a connection to Palestinians based on their experiences as members of a marginalized population. Within religious communities, the leaders are disturbed by the horrific conditions that currently exist for Palestinian people. In response to Biden’s displays of support for Israel, many of these religious groups have lost their support for him as a president and are no longer willing to vote for him.
In addition to facing opposition from these religious leaders, the religious groups’ disdain for Biden has caused larger-scale challenges for his campaign. According to King’s reporting, many of the campaign events targeted toward Black voters in the southern states are facilitated by these community organizations. By losing support from the organizers of Democratic campaign events, Democrats lose an opportunity to talk to voters and campaign directly within these spaces. These faith-based groups also hold significant influence over the older Black voters who have more time available to vote, and the lack of support among leaders has encouraged dissent among community members. Based on community organizers’ outward concerns about humanitarian problems within Gaza, many voters within the communities have become increasingly aware of the brutality faced by Gazans and are thus unwilling to support Biden’s campaign.
In addition to Black voters, Democrats can typically rely on progressive Americans’ votes because their views are often more consistent with Democratic campaigns in comparison to Republicans. With this said, polling from the Wall Street Journal has found that many of the left-leaning voters who would typically be more loyal to the Democratic party are similarly outraged by Biden’s unwavering support for Israel, with protests erupting throughout the country. After repeatedly calling for a cease-fire and more humanitarian efforts within Gaza, progressives are increasingly unwilling to vote for him in the 2024 election based on this single issue.
In addition to opposition from demographics that consistently vote for Democratic candidates, Biden faces concerns about his age from voters of all political affiliations. King found that moderate conservatives and independent voters feel similarly uninterested in both candidates. Many of these voters expressed that they did not intend to vote in the upcoming election based on their discontent with the candidates.
The New York Times cites a consistent trend in rising concerns across the political spectrum about Biden’s competence and ability to continue serving as president for another term. Already the oldest sitting president at 81 years old, many of his critics have long argued that his age may be responsible for memory-related challenges. After a recent special counsel report, even the aging president’s voters have grown worried about his ability to continue in the role for another four years.
The report, which resulted from an investigation into Biden’s handling of classified documents, argues that Biden’s mistakes were likely driven by his age and poor memory, citing multiple instances in which the president appeared to have difficulty recalling basic information about his time as vice president, his son’s death, and his own foreign policy. He denies having any problems with his memory, but voters now have even more reason to be apprehensive about voting for Biden to serve as the leader of the country after he is alleged to struggle with recalling necessary information. While the report contends that Biden’s handling of documents was in good faith and not entirely inappropriate, voters’ concerns about his old age were only augmented after its publication, and the aforementioned research from the New York Times suggests that this information may sway moderate voters.
Further, many voters oppose Biden based on economic challenges that they attribute to his presidency. While the economy has shown signs of growth, many voters have viewed rising prices and the affordability crisis as products of Biden’s presidency. The New York Times reports that many Americans consider the U.S. economy poor and overestimate the potential for an economic downturn. Nate Cohn, the Chief Political Analyst for the New York Times, indicates that Biden’s approval ratings were down in part due to this negative perception of his handling of the economy and believes that this could cost him the election if there aren’t changes that result in higher collective faith in the U.S. economy.
Even if the populations that no longer support Biden’s candidacy choose not to vote for a Republican candidate or abstain from voting in the 2024 election entirely, Biden still loses critical support necessary to win the election. While Trump or another Republican candidate may not receive these votes, less voter turnout among Democrats allows Republicans to more easily obtain a majority of votes based on a lack of direct opposition. Because of this, the likelihood of Biden’s reelection is becoming increasingly unlikely.
While Biden is losing much of his voter base, many participants in a recent NBC poll have articulated that the direction of their votes is contingent upon whether or not former President Trump is convicted of a felony. Despite their overall disapproval of President Biden, many voters are far more inclined to vote for the incumbent if their alternative is to vote for a convicted felon. While the primary bases of both candidates remain the same, specific demographics are much more variable based on the future of Trump’s legal battles. In particular, many younger, Latino, and independent voters are willing to adjust their votes accordingly. With that said, the same NBC study cites that these demographics voted in favor of Biden in the 2020 election, so maintaining their votes may not be sufficient to win him the election.
Ultimately, due to several unique factors, many voters are losing confidence in the president’s ability to effectively serve as the executive of the U.S. government for another four-year term. As a result, many are articulating plans to vote for Trump or to abstain from voting altogether. Based on this, the White House and Biden’s campaign ought to make changes to their platform and policy to succeed in the 2024 election.
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This article was edited by Inna Volovich.
