Photo via Bloomberg
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On February 14, 2024, Indonesia, the world’s third-largest democracy, held its fifth election since dictator Sahurto’s rule ended in 1998. In one of the world’s largest and most complex elections, preliminary poll counts indicate that Prabowo Subianto gained 57.7% of the vote, with 6% of the ballots recorded by the official election commission. Prabowo’s background, including his association with the authoritarian rule of Sahurto, raises questions about the future of Indonesia under his leadership. The current president, Joko Widodo, endearingly called Jokowi, who is widely popular and has completed two five-year terms in office, endorsed Prabowo during his campaign.
Much of Prabowo’s campaign focused on continuing Jokowi’s policies that brought economic growth and continued democracy in the country. Prabowo has served as Jakowi’s defense minister since 2019 and was a critical internationalist in a cabinet focused on domestic economic prosperity. Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a former senior advisor to the Indonesian vice president, said, “Jokowi clearly dreams that Prabowo will allow him to be a back-seat driver, which I don’t believe will be the case.” However, Jokowi’s eldest son is Prabowo’s running mate, fueling fire to the concerns about potential nepotism. It is unclear what type of leader Prabowo will become, but certainly, he would not want to take orders from the former president.
Citizens under 40 make up more than half the voting population in this election, and failed to remember or acknowledge Prabowo’s dark past. Zachary Abuza, a professor at National War College, says, “Prabowo has worked really hard to whitewash his egregious past…but it’s still too early to tell what kind of president he will be.” During his campaign, he used TikTok to appeal to young people through cute videos of him to sell himself as a “grandfather” figure.
Prabowo was the special forces commander under Suharto, who oversaw decades of repressive rule and led one of the world’s most corrupt regimes in Indonesia. Suharto ruled from 1968 to 1998, leading the country through military repression and authoritarian control. Because he was against communism in Asia, the U.S. provided him with substantive aid while overlooking his corruption and violations of human rights. Under Suharto’s dictatorship, presumed communists were killed, and even entire families. In a bloodbath to defeat Indonesia’s Communist Party, an estimated quarter of a million to a million people were killed.
Prabowo has been accused of committing multiple human rights abuses during his time as a military leader under Suharto. On the eve of Suharto’s political fall, Prabowo was dismissed from his position following evidence that showed he had ordered the abduction of student protestors. Prabowo admitted involvement in 2014 but maintained that his actions were legal and that he was only following orders. The former general has also been criticized for involvement in the oft-overlooked East Timor genocide perpetrated by Suharto’s government. In other attacks, the country’s ethnic Chinese were targets of violence. He was banned from the U.S. for these human rights abuses until 2020. Prabowo was also married to Suharto’s daughter, Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana, from 1983 to 1998, who led a corrupt group that collected tolls from new highways. The family had many schemes like this, gaining up to 35 billion dollars.
Some have also been concerned about the security of democracy in Indonesia, as it is still so new. In the past, Prabowo has promised to solve problems by himself, not through “shaky democracy.” He has also openly undermined the rights of minorities, including ethnic Chinese and religious minorities, despite Indonesia being a secular state.
This is not the first time Prabowo has run for president. His past campaigns in 2009, 2014, and 2019 looked very different. In 2019, he disagreed with Jokowi and argued for a less tolerant and more Islamic society. He also initially did not accept the results of the election when Jokowi won, and began a campaign to overturn the results. The pattern of disregarding Indonesia’s democracy is threatening to those who live there and the rest of the world. Although Jokowi generally retained a high approval rating, his democratic record was not perfect, and there is fear that Prabowo might continue a trend of restricting the media and strengthening the military.
Indonesia’s democracy is critical to the Indo-Pacific region. While Indonesia’s democracy is still flawed, it has played a critical role in protecting human rights and addressing intolerance and radicalization. As Prabowo is set to take office in the fall of 2024, uncertainties linger about the kind of leader he will be, whether he will uphold democratic values or veer toward authoritarian tendencies. The outcome will be significant for the citizens of Indonesia and the rest of the global stage. The international community will be watching how Prabowo’s presidency unfolds and the impact it may have on democracy, tolerance, and human rights in the Indo-Pacific region.
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This article was edited by Blakely Kehl.
