German Elections and the Crisis of Liberal Democracy

Photo via Le Monde

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Over the last decade, the far-right has been ascending around the world, particularly in the United States, Italy, Hungary, India. These parties often campaign on frustration over cascading political crises, trends that have largely been driven by factors such as a backlash to globalization, immigration, and economic displacement, resulting in the breakdown of democratic norms and institutions in several countries. Until recently, Germany has proven more resilient to right-wing populism at the national level. However,  their upcoming elections threaten to upend their entire political system.

In November 2024, Germany’s coalition of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and pro-business Free Democrats collapsed under infighting—the result of a shrinking economy and energy crisis spurred by Russia’s war in Ukraine. This collapse eventually led to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s defeat in a vote of confidence, as well as a call for new elections on February 23 for the Bundestag, one section of the German Parliament’s legislative branch. 

Scholz has since been renominated for Chancellor by the Social Democrats, but the SPD is currently polling below the center-right Christian Democratic Alliance (CDU) and, more notably, the far-right Alternative for Germany Party (AfD). The CDU and AfD have nominated Friedrich Merz and Alice Weidel as the leaders of their parties, respectively.

What makes this election starkly different is the popularity of the AfD’s platform and the questionable rhetoric of its leaders. Many of their most concerning remarks comprise false claims made by AfD party leaders about the Nazis. Among these include claims that not all members of the Schutstaffel, the Nazi paramilitary force, were criminals, that Hitler was “forced” to invade Poland, and that the Holocaust memorial in Berlin is a “memorial of shame.” Their leaders have also made many disparaging comments toward migrants, distributed fake plane tickets to advertise their deportation plans, and called for mass deportations if they were to be elected.  

Meanwhile, in the United States, billionaire businessman and Trump administration official Elon Musk has recently emulated the same negligence of the AfD party while discussing the Nazi atrocities of World War II. In an appearance and speech at an AfD rally, Musk even expressed that “children should not be responsible for the sins of their great-grandparents.” 

Aside from these incendiary remarks, a Germany led by the AfD would fundamentally alter European dynamics and politics. The party’s platform calls for many drastic measures, including dismantling the European Union and ceasing usage of the Euro, leaving the Paris Climate Accords, ending aid to Ukraine, and resuming the purchasing of Russian gas. A far-right party leading Europe’s largest economy would be unprecedented in the post-war era of today. 

Under the AfD’s leadership, Germany would likely also see a great resurgence in hostility toward viewpoints and ideologies adverse to the far-right. Furthermore, this would likely produce greater fragmentation and insularity across Europe, as well as deeply harm Europe’s ability to support Ukraine against Russia’s invasion and bolster NATO in the event of a Russian attack on a member state.

Despite this being the first national election in which the AfD poses a serious threat to the Chancellorship, for the past few years, they have been competitive in multiple state elections. In 2024, the AfD won 31% of the vote, came in second place to the CDU in Saxony, and won the election in Thuringia with 33% of the vote. Some factors contributing to the AfD’s popularity include the scars of reunification and modern frustrations with the current coalition. 

Following the reunification of East and West Germany in the 1990s, former East Germany underwent a privatization process that resulted in three million people losing their jobs and being placed on welfare. In the early 2000s, welfare payments equaled half of the East’s gross domestic product. This economic displacement and heightened insecurity made residents of the East more susceptible to backlash from further changes, such as integration into the EU and the migrant crisis that began in the 2010s. Today, support for the AfD is strongest in areas of former East Germany, where high amounts of brain drain ensued following the Cold War.

Augmenting the historical economic displacement felt by East Germans, the past few years have ushered in a cost-of-living crisis and a surge in gas prices due to COVID-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Many Germans feel Olaf Scholz failed to adequately address these crises, with his aversion to communication leading to a public perception of him as dishonest. This only worsened with a November 2023 court ruling that stated his coalition had violated budget practices. By shifting money into an off-budget special fund, Scholz’s coalition forced the government to end subsidies for electric cars and agricultural diesel fuels during a recession. This eventually led to a protest by farmers in Berlin, pointing to a growing rural-urban divide. 

The AfD has also been able to capitalize on growing discontent surrounding the migrant crisis. However, most Germans still support finding a solution to immigration at the EU level, not at the national level like the AfD.

Notably, the CDU remains the most likely to win a plurality in the upcoming election, and their leader, Friedrich Merz, has vowed not to cooperate with them. Nonetheless, the AfD still poses a major threat to the future of German democracy and the established order of European society as a whole. 

Proposals have been suggested to ban the AfD, as the German Constitution allows bans on parties that seek to subvert democratic institutions. However, this has only occurred twice in their post-war history, and even opponents of the AfD are concerned discussions over a ban could only make them more popular ahead of the election.  

The crises that the AfD has been able to capitalize on are incredibly pertinent to U.S. politics, as Americans have recently seen a far-right populist campaign of their own with Donald Trump’s ascension to the presidency for a second term. Appealing to this ideology, Trump’s campaign largely rested on multiple domestic crises concerning the cost of living and migration. Furthermore, much of his popularity was derived from his speech on the rural-urban divide and the growing disconnectedness of America’s political elite, a great source of frustration among many voters today. 

Ultimately, in our highly globalized, interconnected world, the rise of the far-right is not isolated to one country but something that many countries facing similar crises have been, and will continue to be, forced to contend with.

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This article was edited by Isabel Adkins and Teagan Munafo.