Shifting Ground in Texas

Photo via Bob Daemmrich/The Texas Tribune

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Texas is largely considered a Republican stronghold, and for good reason: at least one Texas Senate seat has been held by a Republican since 1961, and both seats have been held by Republicans since 1993. Republicans have also dominated Texas in the last ten presidential elections. Yet, the tide seems to be changing, and people are noticing.

Two candidates in the democratic primary are getting a lot of attention. Jasmine Crockett is currently a house representative for the 30th district, running a strong campaign for the Senate, and her opponent, James Talarico, a Texas state representative, is polling close behind her. 

As a Texan who watched Beto O’Rourke lose by 2.6% in 2018, it’s hard to believe the Lone Star State would ever go purple. But, though this election could just as easily leave us all crying on the couch as results come in, the fact that there is hope in Texas matters. Nationally, of course, Texas holds 40 electoral college votes and would be valuable to either party. This primary is also a litmus test for the Democratic Party’s strategy. Crockett has been divisive as a representative, going after Trump and his allies without holding back, and most recently saying she would support impeachment proceedings against the president. In comparison, Talarico appears more moderate, working across the aisle in the Texas state legislature, and is aligning his rhetoric to bring moderate Republican voters onto his side. 

Though this race is nationally significant, it means a great deal to Texas, too: the minimum wage across the state is still $7.25 an hour; according to Every Texan, an organization that develops policy recommendations to improve equity, 3.47 million Texans rely on SNAP to afford groceries, and 22% of Texas children experience food insecurity, as of 2024. These two candidates are emphasizing affordability and advocating for the working middle class–a group that comprises 50% of the Texas population. Change needs to happen in Texas, and no matter which candidate wins the primary, they are bound to shake things up, whether or not the election goes their way in November.

Starting with Jasmine Crockett, she’s from St. Louis, Missouri, and served a term in the Texas House of Representatives before becoming a U.S. Representative in 2023. In the House, Crocket has consistently supported legislation that aligns with the interests of the working class and important issues for Democrats in general: she has sought to improve gun safety laws, supported bills to increase transparency in immigration detention facilities, and worked to address inequality faced by Latina women. She’s also famous for viral clips of her on the House Oversight Committee calling for the release of the Epstein files or insisting on Kristi Noem’s resignation, which have made her a firecracker candidate. 

Crockett seems like the perfect person to take on John Cornyn; however, her acceptance of corporate PAC money has made her controversial. During her 2023 campaign, Crockett received about 23% of her total budget from corporations that had previously supported Republican candidates. Despite her progressive policies, Adam Green, a founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, said that “[t]o call her in any way the progressive or leftist candidate is a misnomer.” Because of this backlash, Crockett promised she would not take PAC money for her Senate race, but has found a loophole. She has transferred almost $27,000 of corporate money from her House fund to her Senate campaign. This issue has been an important topic of discussion as the primary nears.

Moving to the nationally prominent start-up, James Talarico, who was born and raised in Texas, is currently serving as a State Representative for the 50th district. In the state legislature, he has advocated for sensible policy amid the Republican majority. Talarico has been very progressive, supporting bills to improve the minimum salary of teachers, going after private school vouchers and charter schools, and attempting to make exceptions for the strict Texas abortion ban. However, he is likely best known for the many nationally viral moments he’s had over the last couple of years. He went on Joe Rogan’s podcast last year, participated in Jubilee’s popular 1 vs 20 video, and, most recently, went on Stephan Colbert’s The Late Show, where CBS controversially barred him from airing on the network. 

Beyond these popular interviews, I think Talarico is so widely discussed because he does an excellent job of being strongly anti-Trump in a Republican-friendly way. He is a Presbyterian seminarian who frequently weaves religious messaging into his populist opinions and has discussed the overlap between Christian messaging and leftist policy. In a purely aesthetic way, he looks like he just stepped out of Chip and Joanna Gaines’ Magnolia Farm; the cover video of his campaign website is him giving a speech from the bed of a red pickup truck outside of a church–it doesn’t get more Texas than that. 

Beyond this highly curated narrative, Talarico has set himself apart from Crockett by fundraising exclusively from individual donations. He has received no corporate PAC money and has emphasized that his campaign is a community-based grassroots organization that has received over 290,000 donations and raised $20 million. Talarico not only criticizes the acceptance of corporate money, as many other Democrats do, but also walks the walk and is succeeding.

Obviously, there is more than campaign funding separating these two candidates. There continues to be traditions of racism and sexism that plague Texas politics, and Jasmine Crockett does not look like the candidates that have previously won in this state. She is remarkably qualified and has an impressive record, but, as with some of the criticism of the Harris campaign in 2024, Texans may not be ready for a black woman Senator. As frustrating and backwards as this reality check is, it is a risk that unfortunately exists.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, James Talarico is a cookie-cutter model of the classic Texas politician (besides being a Democrat). His strategy of attracting moderate voters works well in rural areas, but young voter turnout has increased significantly over the last few election cycles. Cities like Austin, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio usually vote blue, and his middle-of-the-road rhetoric could push out young voters who believe Harris wasn’t left enough. 

No matter which candidate wins the primary on March 3rd, the race in November will be difficult. However, Beto’s campaign showed us in 2018 that strong Democratic candidates can lose the battle but win the war. Even though Beto lost, he gained a significant foothold for the Democratic Party, winning counties that hadn’t been won by a democrat in years, advancing the campaigns of smaller politicians, and preventing the reelection of multiple incumbent Republicans. 

Beto O’Rourke has declined to endorse a candidate in the primary, but there are significant parallels between his run and the quiet hope that is spreading throughout Texas. And this is a state that needs some hope: maternal mortality rose by 56% in the first year following the abortion ban, one of every four ICE arrests nationally in 2025 happened in Texas, and over half of Texas rural hospitals are at risk of closing after the 2025 budget reconciliation bill. Texas is not just another state; it is the state. 

As a Texas Democrat, I try to avoid hope because things don’t usually work out. But, in this moment, I can’t help but think of a quote from Suzanne Collins’s The Hunger Games: “[hope] is the only thing stronger than fear. A little hope is effective, a lot of hope is dangerous. A spark is fine, as long as it is contained.” All of the kids who watched Beto lose in 2018 are now heading to the ballot box. We are proving that Texas politics is no longer a foregone conclusion but a contest. The illusion of invincibility has cracked, and it is only a matter of time before Texas is set ablaze. 

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This article was edited by Abigail D’Angelo.