The Shifting Politics of the United Kingdom

Photo via Sky News

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The figures shown in the picture above may not be immediately recognizable, yet they are two of the most popular politicians in contemporary British politics. On the left is Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK (formerly the Brexit Party), a right-wing populist party that emerged from the Brexit movement. On the right is Zack Polanski, the leader of the Green Party of England and Wales, once a single-issue environmental party, now a big-tent, left-wing political party.

Since the election of Keir Starmer’s Labour government in July 2024, Reform and the Greens have boomed in the polls, with Reform currently polling around 27% and the Greens at 16% for Parliament voting intention. Back in the 2024 election, these two parties were barely at half those levels. Meanwhile, the Labour party–which currently holds a majority government in Parliament–was polling at an impressive 45% just before the election but has since dropped dramatically to 18% in less than two years. 

Starmer’s government has been facing severe internal issues, with the resignations of his Chief of Staff, Morgan McSweeney and Director of Communications, Tim Allan, and the arrest of the Ambassador to the United States, Lord Peter Mandelson, for links to the convicted child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The majority of the British public has expressed indignation with Keir Starmer’s leadership as well, believing he should resign.

Other political parties are not performing well either. The opposition Conservative Party has fallen to 17% in the polls, while the Liberal Democrats Party and Scottish National Party have stagnated with low numbers below the rest. At the same time, prominent Conservative Party members have increasingly been defecting to Reform. 

So, what exactly is happening in the United Kingdom’s politics?

In plain terms, the UK’s century-long era of stable two-party dominance is breaking down. Since the early 20th century, the UK has been dominated by the Labour and Conservative parties–rough equivalents to the Democratic and Republican parties in America. Just like the States, these two parties have long been in a tug-of-war for power, with both sides fielding prominent leaders such as Margaret Thatcher (Conservative) and Tony Blair (Labour). 

However, since the turn of the century, this traditional political system has been gradually eroding. Affordability, the influx of immigrants and refugees, establishment discontent, and Britain’s changing relationship with the European Union have all impacted the voting habits of Brits, and the traditional parties are struggling to adapt effectively. 

Even though Labour won a majority in the 2024 election, their popular vote share was 33.7%, the lowest total vote share any majority government has ever recorded in the UK. The Conservatives embarrassed themselves with their worst performance since 1832, winning only 23.7% of the popular vote. And the two-party combined vote share was a weak 57.4%. 

The fallout of the 2016 Brexit referendum is one of the main reasons the two-party system is failing. After a combination of decades of feeling economically exploited by the European Union, censure of British immigration policy–particularly following the 2015 Refugee Crisis–and distrust in the political establishment, the Brits narrowly voted to leave the European Union. While the referendum only consisted of one topic, the Brexit era as a whole defined a larger political movement against establishment politics. New leaders and parties like Nigel Farage and his Brexit Party emerged, and political sentiment shifted from traditional economic issues into a new sphere of euroscepticism, British nationalism, and anti-immigration. 

While there are many elements to this political shift, it can be boiled down to populism, a movement in which politicians grip onto new political narratives that frame issues as one between an in-group and an out-group. For Farage, the in-group is native English people against the out-group of the political elite, immigrants, and established institutions. In response to the populist label, Farage stated, “You call it what you want to call it, I see the whole of Western world politics utterly dominated by a handful of giant multinationals and a career political class.”

Clearly attractive to the ordinary Brit, Reform UK has surpassed 200,000 party members, even with its founding being just a mere five years ago, compared to Labour, which has 309,000 members and was founded 126 years ago. Farage has used this popularity to attack the establishment parties, consistently claiming that the Conservatives and Labour both betrayed the British people by failing to fully deliver Brexit and failing to shut down immigration. Reform members have also utilized intense anti-immigrant rhetoric, with Farage stating his party would create an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) style agency if Reform wins power. 

Populism, however, is not limited to just right-wing politics. More recently, Zach Polanski and the Green Party have been surging in the polls. Polanski, a charismatic Mamdani-like politician, has embraced left-wing economic populism, transforming the Greens into a serious progressive force. He is similar to Farage in openly recognizing economic difficulties while simultaneously attacking the political establishment, but is different in his reasoning for contemporary problems. Rather than blaming immigrants, he attacks billionaires, corporations, and “out-of-touch” political elites.

Since Polanski became leader of the Greens in September 2025, membership has more than doubled, and they have become the third largest party in Britain, recently surpassing the Conservatives. The Greens do especially well with young, educated, and urban voters, and have been attracting former Labour voters alongside a handful of Labour politicians defecting to the party. They also recently won a historic election. Green candidate Hannah Spencer beat out Labour and Reform in the Gorton and Denton by-election, marking the first ever by-election win for the Greens and trouncing Labour in a Parliament seat they have held for the past 100 years.

This surge of Green support represents a left-wing populist counterweight to Reform. While their politics are diametrically opposed, their populist messaging shares many similarities. Together, they have emerged from the failures of the mainstream parties and have reshaped the political landscape of Britain. They have harnessed the frustrations of the British people and are fiercely competing to win over the same voting audience. The politics of the UK is in the midst of a rapid upheaval, and only time will tell which parties, and how many, will win power.

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This article was edited by Adam Sharqawe and Brianna Leathem Brazzini.