Chaos Over Kashmir: India and Pakistan Suit Up In The Aftermath of Mass Shooting

Image via the Institute for Geopolitics, Economy and Security

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On Tuesday, April 23, the Kashmir region of South Asia suffered its worst civilian attack in years after a group of gunmen opened fire on a band of tourists, killing at least 26 people and injuring 17 others. The attack occurred in the city of Pahalgam, known for its attraction of tourists and pilgrims from India throughout the year. 

Tensions between India and Pakistan have risen as a result of the mass shooting. The attack comes as a result of a nearly eight-decade-long conflict between the countries over the territory of Kashmir, which is split evenly between India, Pakistan, and China. 

Indian officials have pinned the blame on Pakistan, and police officers are still in search of the militant group responsible. For seven days, neither side claimed responsibility for the attack. Pakistan referred to the Indian government’s accusations as “politically motivated.”

India’s counterterrorism National Investigation Agency (NIA) has taken over the probe into the Pahalgam attack. Indian officials have claimed Pakistan has “past support” for terrorist groups targeting India and will continue ongoing investigations. 

Due to political infighting and the sensitive nature of the aftermath, the Pakistani government urged for an impartial investigation to be conducted by an outside party. Pakistan has called on Russia, Iran, and China to lead the investigation. 

On April 26, a militant group identifying itself as the “Kashmir Resistance,” which is believed to be associated with the banned terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility for the attack. 

However, this has not stopped the Indian government from taking action. Following the attack, India began cancelling visas of Pakistani migrants and visitors, shut its main border crossing with Pakistan, and mandated that all Pakistanis visiting on a SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) visa leave India within 48 hours. 

India has also suspended the Indus Water Treaty, which divides how the two countries divide Kashmir’s six rivers. The treaty has been in effect since 1960. 

In response, Pakistan declared it would retaliate by suspending participation in bilateral treaties, including one that affects the Line of Control—the dividing point between the two countries. 

Since the attack, Indian and Pakistani forces have engaged in rapid gunfire at the Line of Control. Al Jazeera has reported Kashmiri citizens are facing collective punishment as a result of the attack. Reports have emerged of Kashmiris being harassed by police and military officers, and of at least nine residential houses have been demolished by Indian forces, out of suspicion that they may belong to suspected rebels. 

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi says those behind the attack “will be served with the harshest response.” This comes as no surprise, as Modi ran on a campaign of Hindu nationalism, anti-Islamist, and anti-Pakistani rhetoric. Now, Islamophobia is on the rise in India. 

These attitudes towards Pakistan bear a striking resemblance to the ones made on Modi’s campaign, bringing international attention to the possibility of war. Both the Indian and Pakistani governments have spent decades stockpiling arms, including nuclear warheads. In fact, for the first time in twenty years, India surpassed Pakistan on the estimated number of nuclear warheads; with Pakistan at 170 and India at 180. 

While the rest of the world scrambles to find ways to diffuse the situation, India and Pakistan prepare for a conflict of epic proportions. War would devastate the entire region—both countries have a high remote population, which gives them little resources to defend themselves, especially if the Western world is involved. This makes de-escalation crucial: at a time so delicate and fragile for both the region (as well as the entire world), increased devastation is the last thing anyone needs.