The Path to Popehood

Photo via Vatican News

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After the unfortunate news that 88-year-old Pope Francis is in critical condition, there has been growing talk of the possibility of a new pope, the potential candidates for the position, and the ramifications of who is chosen. Pope Francis signed a statement at the beginning of his term stating he would resign from the position if illness came to inhibit his duties.

The electorate body of the Catholic church, the Conclave, is the group of religious leaders who repeatedly vote until a new pope is chosen. This electorate of cardinals, with its largest ever membership of 138 members, will also be more diverse than ever; a growing number of Asian and African cardinals are participating. These developments have opened the door to what may be the first person of color as pope.

So, what are the makings of a pope? The pope must be between 35 and 80 years old. He must be a baptized Catholic man and preferably a cardinal appointed by a previous pope. The decision process is highly politicized within the group of electors. In order for a cardinal to be elected pope, he must receive the support of at least two-thirds of the Conclave. 

With the growing impact of religion on U.S. politics, the next leader of the Catholic Church will likely influence American politics. As of 2024, there are 52 million adults who identify as Catholic in the United States. Most Americans believe that church leaders have high ethical standards and often look to them when making moral decisions. Additionally, most Americans believe their sermons have the “right amount” of political discussion, and 62 percent agree with the views discussed in the sermons. Religion plays a significant role in moral development, impacting political opinions and judgments. The combination of these factors raises questions many hold over how this possible new pope may change the political landscape.

American Catholics have been divided for a number of years between liberals and conservatives. This is especially true for issues such as abortion and same-sex unions. With a polarizing split, what the pope believes can have a profound impact on the way Catholics evolve in the future.

The pope has been known to occasionally comment on American politics, and has recently referred to conservative Catholics in the U.S. as “backwards.” He claims they have replaced religion with political ideology and emphasizes that the right way to understand the Catholic doctrine is as something that can change over time. Regarding the most recent election cycle, he urged Catholics to vote for the “lesser evil” and to reflect on their choice. 

The three most often discussed potential candidates vary in their beliefs and backgrounds. The main issues that may have the most significant impact on U.S. politics are abortion/ contraceptives, LGBTQ rights, church structure, and climate change.

One possible candidate is progressive 67-year-old Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle of the Philippines. Although he has not made an official statement on blessing LGBT marriages, Tagle has shown a generally supportive history for LGBT Catholics, condemning harsh words against them. Tagle supports a synodal church where open dialogue between all members decentralizes teachings. This influences the church’s evolution based on the growth of its members, which has significant ramifications for both the church’s development and its broader impact. In reference to contraceptives, the cardinal favors re-contextualizing the church’s writings on human life in “light of contemporary issues.” However, while he supports this rethinking, Tagle remains vehemently against abortion. Additionally, Tagle has shown strong support for addressing and fixing climate change.

Another possible candidate is moderate 65-year-old Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu of the Democratic Republic of Congo. He has shown mixed opinions, and some remain unknown. On the topic of LGBT union blessings, Besungu has demonstrated strong disapproval, claiming that they contradict God’s teachings and should be performed “outside liturgical settings.” Besungu has shown high approval for the synodal church and sees this process as a new path for the church. He is highly supportive of fixing the climate crisis. There is little mention of his opinions on contraceptives; however, based on his other opinions, Besungu tends to lean conservative. 

Additionally, 70-year-old Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the current Vatican Secretary of State, is also considered a front-runner. His experience as the Secretary of State gives him a strong political advantage. He has shown mixed support for blessing same-sex unions. He welcomed the idea; however, he claimed that the “church is open and attentive to the signs of the times but must be faithful to the Gospel.” Parolin supports open communication within the church and has greatly supported combating climate change. While he does not have much history discussing abortion and contraceptives, the cardinal has shown implicit favorability to re-evaluating the church’s history regarding it.

Although the pope holds a position of international influence, the chosen individual could have a significant impact on U.S. politics. Given the growing influence of religion in American domestic politics, the beliefs and teachings of the new pope—who leads a church followed by a fifth of Americans, will impact more than just religion. Whether there will be a new pope or not remains to be seen, but its political importance cannot be understated. 

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This article was edited by Matthew Quirindongo and Nicole Sigismondi.