Photo via the Daily Sabah
***
On December 8, 2024, rebel forces in Damascus successfully overthrew the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, forcing him to flee the country as his regime collapsed. Celebrations broke out on the streets with people of all ages coming together to rejoice over the start of a new Syria. While this took most of the world by surprise, it was a premeditated action planned by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), one of the main rebel groups that carried out the attack on Assad’s palace. Now, with Assad officially overthrown, a lot of questions regarding how the country will move forward and stabilize itself from this change in power remain. To fully understand this consequential moment, it is vital to look at the history of the Assad regime and the crisis Syria endured under its rule.
Assad is a second-generation ruler of an autocratic family that has been controlling Syria since 1971; he came into power in 2000 following his father’s death and has ruled oppressively ever since. During the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Assad cracked down on protests brutally, perpetrating human rights violations and assaults on citizens. In turn, an immense refugee crisis evolved in the midst of the Arab Spring, thus making Syria the scene of one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises. Since the civil war’s outbreak, more than 14 million people have been forcibly displaced, while more than 7.2 million remain within the country due to their inability to successfully flee and seek asylum. In June of last year, the UN warned that 90% of Syrians were living below the poverty line, as funding for emergency food aid was cut by 40%. For the past 13 years, Syrians have been subjected to inhumane treatment and oppressive government rule. Despite this, however, rebellion and anti-government plotting was not absent from the conversation.
Syria’s newest rebel group, the “Military Operations Command,” is composed of a variety of different Islamist groups and factions who are united in combating ISIS and Iran-backed militants (despite their differences). The Military Operations Command is run by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who is the leader of the HTS. Jolani had an involved past with al-Qaeda, officially joining the group in 2013 in an attempt to maintain local support and avoid alienating Syrians and rebel factions. However, the association with al-Qaeda did little to benefit his effort in Syria. In 2016, Jolani severed ties with al-Qaeda and began rebranding not just himself, but also his group, therefore shifting the way HTS operated. The group dominated in Idlib, home to four million people, and subsequently acted as a government within the area. In attempts to change his popular image, Jolani interacted with the public, visited the displaced, and more. Still, not everyone in Idlib and Syria supports the HTS. Protests and demonstrations have taken place to accuse the group of running adjacently to Assad and unfairly silencing dissent.
Nonetheless, HTS began carrying out their effort in late November to aid the collapse of the Assad regime. They started by waging attacks in the Aleppo province, prompting the rebels to take control of the city. The group proceeded to take over the city of Hama, another victory. As HTS continued to seize more and more territory, it paved the way for the rebels’ arrival in Damascus, where they declared the country was “liberated” upon Assad’s fleeing. (He is currently seeking asylum in Russia.) Altogether, it was a perfect storm that capitalized on the Syrian government’s involvement in other conflicts, such as Russia’s war in Ukraine.
However, what lies next for the newly liberated country is unclear. This change of power will be vital in determining whether or not non-autocratic and non-dictatorial rule can be attained in the Middle East. There also lies uncertainty in how this new Syria will navigate the climate of the current Middle East, especially with Israel recently launching airstrikes at Syrian military targets such as weapons stockpiles. This was allegedly a decisive move by Israel to prevent Syria from falling into “the hands of extremists,” according to Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs Gideon Sa’ar.
A multitude of world leaders and nations have been reacting to the toppling of the Assad regime, with almost all of them commending the overthrow. U.S. President Joe Biden stated that the fall of the regime is a “historic opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria.” Meanwhile, President-elect Donald Trump posted on X saying, “Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”
It is doubtful that, with the remaining time left in Biden’s presidency, he will allocate any time to dealing with Syria’s new state. As for Trump, he has made it abundantly clear that he will maintain an isolationist approach to Syria, and the Middle East in general. Still, the way the future unfolds is yet to be seen.
