Since the end of 2023, tensions between several East Asian countries have steadily increased, yet have gone nearly unseen by the majority of the Western world. When precisely these tensions began is hard to determine. Still, alarm bells rang in December of 2023 when Japan’s cabinet approved the largest defense budget in its history, surpassing that of Imperial Japan in the early twentieth century. The Cabinet also approved a loosening of export restrictions, allowing Japan to supply complete lethal weapons and munitions to other countries under certain conditions. The proposed budget lasts until the 2027 fiscal year, in which Japan plans to spend 43 trillion yen, or $302 billion, with a steady increase of approximately 7-10% annually.
Despite the decrease in the yen’s value over the past decade, Japan has made clear its intentions to continue increasing its military budget, emphasizing aviation and missile defense following North Korea’s latest increase in military spending.
Tensions are continuing to rise throughout the subcontinent. Earlier this year, China began a small-scale invasion of the South China Sea, which it shares with the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Indonesia, and Malaysia. China notably increased its military spending at the same time as Japan, taking its place in the nuclear arms race spreading across East Asia and using its incredible size to intimidate neighboring countries in its pursuit for influence.
The impending threat of a regional conflagration grows as China increases its involvement in the Myanmar Civil War, supplying weapons and unwavering support to the junta that controls Myanmar’s government. Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) fighting against military control in Myanmar face imminent danger and the threat of regional interference as China exerts pressure on EAOs within its influence to abandon liberated territories and cut off support for the resistance.
China’s military has not stopped at Myanmar, either. In June, China Coast Guard (CCG) members instigated an attack on Philippine naval workers, looting a group of boats that were docked in the South China Sea. According to the naval workers, the CCG raided the boats, brandishing unspecified “bladed weapons,” and attacked the servicemen while simultaneously plundering supplies being carried across the sea.
Chinese military spokesman Lin Jan did not address the allegations of “bladed weapons” and instead claimed that China had no ill intentions in conducting the raid.
“The Philippine operation was not for humanitarian supplies at all. The Philippine vessels carried not only construction materials but also smuggled weapons. They also intentionally rammed into Chinese vessels and splashed water and threw things on Chinese law-enforcement personnel,” Lin said. “These actions have aggravated tensions at sea and seriously threatened the safety of Chinese personnel and ships.”
In October, leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) met in Vientiane, Laos, to discuss these boiling tensions.
Because of the junta’s control of Myanmar, the country’s participation in ASEAN has been severely limited. In 2021, ASEAN decided to limit Myanmar’s participation in high-level meetings to the “non-political level,” allowing a permanent secretary to attend instead of a senior representative from the junta’s State Administrative Council.
However, ASEAN’s meeting was not as successful as one would hope for. Unlike the United Nations, ASEAN is less of a forum for public and international policy discussion. It is more of a unified meeting for separate nations to discuss their alliances, mostly in private meetings without the other nations involved. This means that, rather than coming to a unanimous agreement about Myanmar’s civil war or the South China Sea, representatives from countries involved attempted to negotiate, or at least begin negotiations, on how to “deal with” China.
Certain nations in East Asia appear to be escalating military readiness, raising concerns about potential conflict. A regional conflict may be imminent, especially as the United States prepares for a new presidency. East Asia will be left wondering whether the world’s largest military will continue to support the region in the future.
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This article was edited by Bowen Yao.
