Lebanese village of Khiam engulfed in smoke after an Israeli airstrike on the southern Lebanese border. Rabih Daher/AFP via Getty Images
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On September 18, 2024, Israel launched a series of deadly pager attacks on Lebanon, resulting in an estimated 32 deaths and thousands of injuries. This hostility is just one part of a complex Middle Eastern struggle for power amongst the political actors of Lebanon, Israel, and Iran.
The Lebanese political party of Hezbollah operates on an agenda of opposition to Israel. Founded during the Lebanese Civil War as a form of resistance to Israeli and Western influence in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah views itself as close allies with both Palestine and Iran. Iran views Hezbollah as a proxy for promoting Shia Muslim values, while also preventing Western influence, a founding principle of the group. These ties with Iran facilitated back-and-forth relations with Palestine, with the Palestinian organization of Hamas officially announcing the establishment of the al-Aqsa Flood Vanguards unit, hosted on Lebanese territory.
This brief context provides an important foundation for understanding why this conflict runs deeper than the initial attacks launched by Israel. While many may be compelled to take this onslaught of turmoil as a surprise, foreign analysts have looked at prior conflicts between Lebanon and Israel as a baseline for what could unfold in the coming months. Lingering tensions from the 2006 Lebanon War have influenced Israel’s war strategy to favor a notably aggressive approach towards not just Lebanon, but Palestine as well.
This aggression on Israel’s end is demonstrated through their military arsenal, with their possession of nuclear weapons remaining ambiguous. Consisting of an estimated $20 billion in funding each year and a backbone built from Western-based technology, Israel has managed to mobilize their resources to extents of mass devastation. Though half of Hezbollah’s arsenal has allegedly been destroyed, Iran’s close ties to the proxy-sponsored state presents a possibility of support and aid. While Israel has western technology on its side, Iran has a numerical advantage: it surpasses Israel in terms of personnel and artillery. Still, Israel receives vastly greater funding.
As Iran and Hezbollah continue to navigate this situation, Israel undoubtedly has one of the greatest military advantages: the active support of the United States of America. Allied on the basis of similar cultural beliefs and close economic relations, Israel and the U.S. have been closely tied since the U.S.’s official recognition of Israel’s statehood in 1948. This alliance has persisted through the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian war, even after Israel has been internationally condemned for their overtly destructive military tactics, suggesting that the U.S. will continue to fund and reinforce Israel over the course of the coming months.
Notably, the U.S. has already made its persistent support clear amidst the onslaught of Israel’s ambush of Hezbollah. On October 1, 2024, Iran responded to the attack on its close ally with a government-authorized missile strike targeting multiple sites across Israel. The attack was intercepted by the U.S. government in defense of Israel.
As of the date of this article being written, there has been a second missile attack issued by Iranian officials. This follow-up proved to be far more effective than the initial strike, with over 30 points of impact identified. What this means for Israel’s and the U.S.’s response is left uncertain, though foreign policy analysts believe that Israel is preparing to respond. How this response will impact the disarrayed state of Lebanon and what role the U.S. will have in it is still unknown.
The Israeli leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, is speculated to have dedicated himself entirely to disputes with both Lebanon and Palestine to appease Israeli far-right political players and keep his position of power. When considering the types of interests involved, the conflict takes on both international and domestic implications that only heighten its complexity. The beginnings of this war, the ideological stakes presented, and the historical context of the international actors involved suggest that this conflict will only continue to grow.
