Image via Slate
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The term battleground state refers to states with a reasonable probability of being won by a Democratic or Republican candidate in state and national elections. Because the Electoral College cultivates a winner-take-all scenario, the Democratic and Republican parties will invest significant resources into battleground states to ensure the 270 electoral votes necessary to secure the presidency. In the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, seven battleground states were decided by less than 3% of the aggregate votes: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. These seven states remain pivotal in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential election and, thus, the future of the United States.
Battleground states do not solely apply to presidential elections. Due to the tendency of the these elections to take the spotlight in American politics, there is a lack of awareness of the significance of other equally important elections. While the presidential election determines the party in control of the executive branch, the legislative branch is also a crucial component, with both parties aiming to secure a majority in Congress. In the House of Representatives, elections occur every two years, whereas in the Senate, elections occur every six years, with a third of the senators up for election every two years. Securing a majority in the House and Senate is ideal for a party to advance its platform and policy proposals, as it ensures the president has a cooperative Congress.
When considering a battleground state, the above-mentioned states are the prime examples. The Empire State, on the other hand, would be the last thing most people envision as a political battleground. In a surface-level analysis, New York appears to be a Democratic stronghold, with President Joseph R. Biden Jr. receiving almost two million more votes than former President Donald J. Trump in the 2020 Presidential Election. However, New York has become a pivotal swing state due to its House of Representatives elections, one of the primary factors in deciding which party secures a House majority.
During the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans experienced a “red mirage” after failing to materialize the prophesied red wave. Republicans secured 222 seats, flipping 19 to obtain a razor-thin majority of only five. Nonetheless, Republicans still ensured a divided Congress that would disrupt the Biden administration’s liberal agenda. Indeed, only five elections determined the direction of American domestic legislation, crushing any hopes of additional policy proposals by President Biden. With such consequential results for such little shifts in the electoral map, the source of this shift must be determined.
The answer: New York.
New York is considered one of the three Democratic strongholds. The House of Representative elections are the rationale behind designating New York as a battleground state this season, as New York surprisingly became more competitive during the 2022 midterms. Republicans managed to gain four additional House seats in New York alone, resulting in their control of eleven out of the twenty-eight seats in New York. This remains the most seats gained by Republicans since 2000 and the highest share of the popular vote since 2002. Without the gains in New York, Republicans would only possess a single-seat majority, making it more difficult for them to block Biden’s agenda. To add insult to injury, Governor Kathy Hochul, the Democratic incumbent, barely defeated her Republican opponent by a mere 6% of the vote, the worst performance of any New York Democrat in the last two decades.
The question for the Democrats is how Republicans managed to survive, let alone win, in a deep blue territory. Historical voting patterns could explain the loss during the midterm elections, where voters tend to vote for the incumbent’s opposition. Additionally, economic fundamentals were abysmal, with the average inflation rate being 8% in 2022, decimating the popularity of the Democratic Party. Despite this, Democrats had a historically strong performance nationally, mainly due to widespread backlash against Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization (2022) that overruled Roe v. Wade (1973). Because 61% of Americans believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases, Democrats still gained solid national momentum heading into the midterms, even during a time of dire economic fundamentals.
However, there is a more disappointing reason behind this embarrassing loss for Democrats on their home field: more Republicans voted than Democrats. The simple truth about all elections is that voter turnout is what makes the difference. The primary purpose of a political party is to mobilize voters to the ballot box, but Democrats failed. During the midterm elections, Republicans won the popular vote for the U.S. House of Representatives, not because of a shift in the electorate, but because of higher turnout for Republicans.
Only 68% of Americans who voted in the 2022 presidential election voted during the 2022 midterms, where Trump voters turned out at 71%, higher than Biden voters at 67%. Although national turnout during the midterms was the second highest in U.S. history (behind the 2018 midterm elections), turnout in New York was lower when compared with previous elections. Specifically, voter participation saw significant declines throughout the five boroughs of New York City, while it increased in suburban counties like Suffolk and Nassau.
Consider the four New York House seats that flipped to Republicans during the midterms. In the New York 17th District, Michael Lawler defeated the incumbent, Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, by a mere 1,820 votes. In the New York 19th District, Marc Molinaro defeated Josh Riley by 4,495 votes. In the New York 4th District, Anthony D’Esposito defeated Laura Gillen by 9,751 votes. In the New York 3rd District, George Santos, arguably the most unqualified House candidate in U.S. history, defeated Robert Zimmerman by 20,420 votes. If a candidate as unqualified as Santos, who lied about his entire identity, managed to win solely because of his party alignment (Republican), then the responsibility lies upon the Democratic Party for this failing.
Evidently, the margin of victory for Republicans does not demonstrate the strength or popularity of the Republican Party in New York, but rather the failure of the Democratic Party to effectively energize and mobilize their constituents to vote for Democrats. During the 2020 Presidential Election, there were 3,251,997 registered Republicans and 5,244,886 registered Democrats. Granted, most of those registered Democrats are located in New York City. However, two years later, Republicans managed to win both House seats in this county—which Biden won by 9.5%—because enough Democrats thought voting was futile to not show up at the polls. The simple truth is that if enough Democrats vote, then Democrats will win. There is no need to moderate the campaign platform to persuade independent voters to get more votes.
The Democratic Party must be better at mobilizing voter turnout for the 2024 election if they wish to defeat Trump and Republicans. The current Democrat narrative depicts Trump as an authoritarian who seeks to destroy fundamental American institutions and, thus, our democracy. If the election is as consequential as Democrats depict it, then mobilizing voters should be the party’s utmost priority for the nation’s sake. If Trump is a danger to American democracy, Democrats must energize voters and emphasize turnout.
Voter turnout is a means to measure political participation in democracies to determine whether the institutions are functioning effectively for all. Suffrage is a means for the people to express their will to their government and influence public policy. Additionally, voting grants one a buy-in within the society they participate in and thus incentivizes them to contribute their part as a member of civilized society. If one does not vote, they do not have a say in the results of the elections and policies enacted. If one does not vote, then they should not complain about said election results.
A typical response from disaffected voters is that their singular vote will not matter; therefore, there is no purpose in voting. They are partially correct. The action of voting is not essential, but the idea of voting is. On a macro level, one vote will rarely make a difference. Thus, if voters choose not to vote during the election, they are not committing wrongdoing. However, thinking that it is right not to vote is a problem. If the nonchalant attitude towards voting becomes more universally adopted, our democracy will not survive. Just like if one person steals, no meaningful harm is being done due to the scope of the action. However, if enough people begin stealing, actual economic damage will be done. Consider if 1,821 Democratic voters chose to perform their civic duty in the New York 17th District and voted. Democrats would have an additional House seat. Now repeat this three more times in New York, and Democrats would have an easier time governing in Congress.
From the signing of the Declaration of Independence to the ratification of the Civil Rights Act of 1965, the story of America has always been about universalizing suffrage. Of course, this was difficult, and resistance was always met. Still, those before us gave it their all for our basic right to vote today. Voting has always mattered and still matters today. This mechanism allows us to be a component of our government’s decision-making while also holding our government accountable and responsible to the needs of the masses. Think of voting in a democracy as comparable to breathing in a human. Like breathing, voting allows a democracy to survive and thrive.
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This article was edited by Colin Mitchell.
